Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
V-Gamingwin 2:0series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
GAGalactic Aliensloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
V-Gaming
Lionsignature
ArrOw · 34 games
Treant Protectorsignature
Malady · 24 games
Linasignature
hAze · 23 games
Shadow Demonsignature
ArrOw · 22 games
Disruptorsignature
Malady · 19 games
Puckoften banned
hAze · 17 games
Abaddonoften banned
Malady · 16 games
Bloodseekersignature
laise · 14 games
Galactic Aliens
Bane
HappyDyurara · 6 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Muka · 6 games
Medusaoften banned
Munkushi~ · 4 games
Disruptor
HappyDyurara · 3 games
Phantom Lanceroften banned
Munkushi~ · 3 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
RodjER · 3 games
Silenceroften banned
HappyDyurara · 3 games
Svenoften banned
Munkushi~ · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
313 picks · 174 bans
Hoodwink
277 picks · 100 bans
Lina
277 picks · 534 bans
Mars
274 picks · 398 bans
Pangolier
263 picks · 370 bans
Shadow Demon
239 picks · 253 bans
Luna
230 picks · 326 bans
Abaddon
208 picks · 240 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)66% vs 46%
Hero pool strength56% V-Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total78% V-Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:29
V-Gaming 64%Galactic Aliens 36%
The model gave 64% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 37:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-MageTA2000
Shadow Fiendkiyotaka
LinahAze
TinyMunkushi~
Spirit Breakerlaise
RubickRodjER
WeaverArrOw
Shadow DemonHappyDyurara
Ogre MagiMalady
Game 2prediction correct35:13
V-Gaming 65%Galactic Aliens 35%
The model gave 65% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 41:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-MageTA2000
MedusaMunkushi~
Storm SpirithAze
Queen of Painkiyotaka
Tinylaise
Shadow DemonRodjER
WeaverArrOw
DisruptorHappyDyurara
Ogre MagiMalady
Model check result
Model favoriteV-Gaming · 78%
Series resultV-Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2