Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChamploss 0:2series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Khanwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Khan
Batrideroften banned
pJonn · 8 games
Morphlingoften banned
layme · 6 games
Tidehunteroften banned
pJonn · 6 games
Tinysignature
Dodren · 6 games
Beastmasteroften banned
pJonn · 5 games
Bane
antoha · 4 games
Dark Willow
goddam · 4 games
Invokeroften banned
Dodren · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
313 picks · 174 bans
Hoodwink
277 picks · 100 bans
Lina
277 picks · 532 bans
Mars
272 picks · 398 bans
Pangolier
262 picks · 369 bans
Shadow Demon
239 picks · 253 bans
Luna
230 picks · 326 bans
Abaddon
208 picks · 240 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Khan
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total62% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:25
PuckChamp 62%Khan 38%
The model gave 62% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Khan in 37:02.
Game 2prediction missed41:27
PuckChamp 62%Khan 38%
The model gave 62% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Khan in 39:45.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 62%
Series resultKhan 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2