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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Bramewin 2:0
series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Creepwaveloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Brame

Lina
Linaoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 16 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 11 games
55%
Axe
Axesignature
SkyLark · 10 games
60%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
W1sh- · 10 games
40%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SkyLark · 9 games
56%
Lion
Lion
CTOMAHEH1 · 9 games
33%
Puck
Puckoften banned
W1sh- · 9 games
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
SkyLark · 8 games
88%

Creepwave

Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 13 games
62%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Crystallis · 13 games
46%
Razor
Razoroften banned
ATF · 9 games
44%
Bane
Bane
Fishman · 8 games
25%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Chuvash · 7 games
29%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Chuvash · 7 games
86%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
ATF · 7 games
57%
Tiny
Tinysignature
bzm · 7 games
86%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
321 picks · 175 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
279 picks · 98 bans
47%
Lina
Lina
274 picks · 532 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
269 picks · 404 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
261 picks · 367 bans
51%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
239 picks · 250 bans
59%
Luna
Luna
230 picks · 329 bans
50%
Abaddon
Abaddon
211 picks · 238 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 55%
Hero pool strength51% Brame
Head-to-head1 – 4
Model total68% Creepwave
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:12
Brame 39%Creepwave 61%
The model gave 61% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Brame in 26:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerNefrit
44% · 81 game47% · 32 games
Anti-MageCrystallis
Anti-Mage
Tidehunter
TidehunterSkyLark
59% · 84 games51% · 22 games
SlardarATF
Slardar
Tinker
TinkerW1sh-
50% · 6 games48% · 174 games
Void Spiritbzm
Void Spirit
Weaver
WeaverCTOMAHEH1
42% · 51 game56% · 56 games
IoChuvash
Io
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionSsaSpartan
49% · 79 games52% · 17 games
LichFishman
Lich
Game 2prediction missed21:7
Brame 40%Creepwave 60%
The model gave 60% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Brame in 22:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaNefrit
49% · 119 games51% · 94 games
Invokerbzm
Invoker
Kunkka
KunkkaW1sh-
57% · 66 games51% · 58 games
SvenCrystallis
Sven
Lycan
LycanSkyLark
43% · 51 game45% · 85 games
AxeATF
Axe
Weaver
WeaverCTOMAHEH1
52% · 50 games52% · 125 games
MiranaChuvash
Mirana
Abaddon
AbaddonSsaSpartan
48% · 124 games53% · 48 games
BaneFishman
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteCreepwave · 68%
Series resultBrame 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2