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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Winstrike Teamloss 1:2
series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 1:2
V-Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Winstrike Team

Lina
Linaoften banned
re1bl · 14 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
chshrct · 14 games
57%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Panto · 13 games
38%
Lion
Lion
yamich · 13 games
38%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
yamich · 12 games
33%
Axe
Axeoften banned
chshrct · 11 games
18%
Puck
Puckoften banned
mellojul · 11 games
55%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
mellojul · 11 games
82%

V-Gaming

Lion
Lionsignature
ArrOw · 34 games
68%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
ArrOw · 22 games
73%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Malady · 22 games
82%
Lina
Linasignature
hAze · 21 game
62%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Malady · 18 games
67%
Puck
Puckoften banned
hAze · 17 games
53%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Malady · 16 games
56%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekersignature
laise · 14 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
323 picks · 175 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
279 picks · 98 bans
47%
Lina
Lina
272 picks · 532 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
271 picks · 406 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
262 picks · 367 bans
51%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
239 picks · 248 bans
59%
Luna
Luna
231 picks · 331 bans
50%
Abaddon
Abaddon
211 picks · 237 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 68%
Hero pool strength62% V-Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total68% V-Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:5
Winstrike Team 38%V-Gaming 62%
The model gave 62% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 23:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
Sniperdyrachyo
47% · 11 games55% · 55 games
LunaTA2000
Luna
Void Spirit
Void Spiritmellojul
50% · 227 games52% · 71 game
TinyhAze
Tiny
Legion Commander
Legion Commanderchshrct
41% · 81 game47% · 170 games
Marslaise
Mars
Weaver
Weaveryamich
43% · 61 game62% · 82 games
LinaAramis
Lina
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiPanto
56% · 36 games49% · 38 games
DisruptorMalady
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct30:38
Winstrike Team 38%V-Gaming 62%
The model gave 62% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 54:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
Sniperdyrachyo
45% · 10 games50% · 49 games
SpectreTA2000
Spectre
Void Spirit
Void Spiritmellojul
42% · 140 games48% · 97 games
TinyhAze
Tiny
Underlord
Underlordchshrct
45% · 36 games55% · 120 games
Tidehunterlaise
Tidehunter
Lina
Linayamich
57% · 145 games43% · 52 games
WeaverAramis
Weaver
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiPanto
48% · 29 games63% · 42 games
Treant ProtectorMalady
Treant Protector
Game 3prediction correct22:32
Winstrike Team 39%V-Gaming 61%
The model gave 61% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 40:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
Sniperdyrachyo
38% · 4 games51% · 117 games
LinahAze
Lina
Beastmaster
Beastmasterchshrct
57% · 90 games50% · 50 games
Faceless VoidTA2000
Faceless Void
Windranger
Windrangermellojul
59% · 45 games38% · 30 games
Night Stalkerlaise
Night Stalker
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkyamich
45% · 102 games40% · 21 game
EarthshakerAramis
Earthshaker
Elder Titan
Elder TitanPanto
50% · 71 game49% · 94 games
EnchantressMalady
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteV-Gaming · 68%
Series resultV-Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3