Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 4 · BO3
result vs predictionGAGalactic Alienswin 2:0
series probability
14%86%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Creepwaveloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Galactic Aliens
Monkey Kingoften banned
Muka · 6 games
Bane
HappyDyurara · 5 games
Medusaoften banned
Munkushi~ · 4 games
Phantom Lanceroften banned
Munkushi~ · 3 games
Silenceroften banned
HappyDyurara · 3 games
Svenoften banned
Munkushi~ · 3 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Munkushi~ · 3 games
Abaddonoften banned
HappyDyurara · 2 games
Creepwave
Marssignature
ATF · 13 games
Svenoften banned
Crystallis · 11 games
Razoroften banned
ATF · 9 games
Bane
Fishman · 8 games
Dark Willow
Chuvash · 7 games
Hoodwinksignature
Chuvash · 7 games
Tinysignature
bzm · 7 games
Void Spiritoften banned
bzm · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
331 picks · 177 bans
Hoodwink
281 picks · 100 bans
Lina
272 picks · 534 bans
Mars
272 picks · 412 bans
Pangolier
263 picks · 368 bans
Luna
237 picks · 334 bans
Shadow Demon
237 picks · 247 bans
Abaddon
213 picks · 239 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 57%
Hero pool strength52% Creepwave
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total86% Creepwave
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:36
Galactic Aliens 27%Creepwave 73%
The model gave 73% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Galactic Aliens in 48:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Linakiyotaka
SvenCrystallis
TinyMunkushi~
Windrangerbzm
Shadow DemonRodjER
Sand KingATF
DisruptorHappyDyurara
SilencerFishman
50% · 46 games
IoChuvash
Game 2prediction missed32:19
Galactic Aliens 28%Creepwave 72%
The model gave 72% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Galactic Aliens in 36:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinyMunkushi~
SvenCrystallis
Tinkerkiyotaka
Ember Spiritbzm
Dark WillowRodjER
TidehunterATF
BaneHappyDyurara
Shadow ShamanFishman
49% · 37 games
IoChuvash
Model check result
Model favoriteCreepwave · 86%
Series resultGalactic Aliens 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2