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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChampwin 2:1
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:1
B8 Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PuckChamp

No games played over 6 months.

B8 Esports

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
[T]SA · 24 games
63%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Dendi · 20 games
55%
Lina
Linasignature
[T]SA · 18 games
72%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Watson · 15 games
53%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Limitless · 13 games
38%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Yuma · 12 games
75%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
[T]SA · 12 games
42%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Watson · 10 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
346 picks · 178 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
286 picks · 103 bans
47%
Mars
Mars
273 picks · 418 bans
49%
Lina
Lina
268 picks · 535 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
264 picks · 369 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
239 picks · 337 bans
51%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
236 picks · 245 bans
59%
Abaddon
Abaddon
216 picks · 240 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 54%
Hero pool strength54% B8 Esports
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total52% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:18
PuckChamp 52%B8 Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 30:47.
Game 2prediction missed36:9
PuckChamp 52%B8 Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 34:13.
Game 3prediction missed23:26
PuckChamp 52%B8 Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 44:20.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 52%
Series resultPuckChamp 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3