?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Winstrike Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Mars
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 27 games
44%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Heaven · 27 games
48%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 21 game
57%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Lodine · 19 games
42%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Heaven · 19 games
47%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Ainkrad · 19 games
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Heaven · 18 games
44%
Lina
Linasignature
Heaven · 15 games
67%

Winstrike Team

Lina
Linaoften banned
re1bl · 14 games
50%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Panto · 13 games
38%
Lion
Lion
yamich · 13 games
38%
Mars
Marssignature
chshrct · 13 games
62%
Phoenix
Phoenix
yamich · 12 games
33%
Axe
Axeoften banned
chshrct · 11 games
18%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
mellojul · 11 games
82%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Panto · 10 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
344 picks · 177 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
286 picks · 103 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
272 picks · 415 bans
49%
Lina
Lina
267 picks · 535 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
264 picks · 366 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
238 picks · 337 bans
51%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
235 picks · 245 bans
59%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
216 picks · 462 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 52%
Hero pool strength52% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total71% Winstrike Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:26
Nemiga Gaming 39%Winstrike Team 61%
The model gave 61% on Winstrike Team — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 40:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tinker
TinkerAinkrad
29% · 3 games50% · 40 games
Lunadyrachyo
Luna
Lifestealer
LifestealerKiritych
49% · 52 games60% · 43 games
Tinymellojul
Tiny
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerTheChosenOne
50% · 4 games61% · 16 games
Earthshakerchshrct
Earthshaker
Weaver
WeaverHeaven
39% · 35 games44% · 25 games
Windrangeryamich
Windranger
Disruptor
DisruptorLodine
53% · 55 games45% · 25 games
HoodwinkPanto
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction missed28:5
Nemiga Gaming 39%Winstrike Team 61%
The model gave 61% on Winstrike Team — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 24:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerKiritych
43% · 58 games52% · 405 games
Puckmellojul
Puck
Batrider
BatriderAinkrad
49% · 134 games53% · 126 games
Faceless Voiddyrachyo
Faceless Void
Mars
MarsTheChosenOne
52% · 363 games47% · 195 games
Tidehunterchshrct
Tidehunter
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonHeaven
56% · 147 games48% · 167 games
Monkey Kingyamich
Monkey King
Lion
LionLodine
52% · 387 games47% · 196 games
HoodwinkPanto
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteWinstrike Team · 71%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2