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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
B8 Esportswin 2:0
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

B8 Esports

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
[T]SA · 24 games
63%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Dendi · 20 games
55%
Lina
Linasignature
[T]SA · 16 games
69%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Watson · 15 games
53%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Limitless · 13 games
38%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Yuma · 12 games
75%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
[T]SA · 12 games
42%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Watson · 10 games
50%

Nemiga Gaming

Mars
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 27 games
44%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Heaven · 27 games
48%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 21 game
57%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Lodine · 19 games
42%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Heaven · 19 games
47%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Heaven · 18 games
44%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Ainkrad · 18 games
56%
Lina
Linasignature
Heaven · 15 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
352 picks · 180 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
287 picks · 105 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
271 picks · 420 bans
49%
Lina
Lina
266 picks · 536 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
265 picks · 363 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
238 picks · 337 bans
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
233 picks · 243 bans
58%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
220 picks · 471 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 46%
Hero pool strength52% B8 Esports
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total63% B8 Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:26
B8 Esports 57%Nemiga Gaming 43%
The model gave 57% on B8 Esports — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 35:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingWatson
46% · 109 games43% · 33 games
WeaverKiritych
Weaver
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainDendi
55% · 72 games50% · 136 games
Death ProphetTheChosenOne
Death Prophet
Earthshaker
EarthshakerLimitless
58% · 73 games45% · 70 games
TinyAinkrad
Tiny
Lina
Lina[T]SA
51% · 158 games49% · 132 games
ClockwerkHeaven
Clockwerk
50% · 41 game
OmniknightLodine
Omniknight
Game 2prediction correct36:21
B8 Esports 59%Nemiga Gaming 41%
The model gave 59% on B8 Esports — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 33:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaWatson
49% · 89 gameslittle data
TinkerAinkrad
Tinker
Viper
ViperDendi
51% · 69 games49% · 97 games
Monkey KingKiritych
Monkey King
Beastmaster
BeastmasterLimitless
52% · 73 games48% · 144 games
TidehunterTheChosenOne
Tidehunter
Lina
Lina[T]SA
51% · 108 games51% · 98 games
ClockwerkHeaven
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteB8 Esports · 63%
Series resultB8 Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2