Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChampwin 2:0series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:0
GAGalactic Aliensloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Galactic Aliens
Monkey Kingoften banned
Muka · 5 games
Bane
HappyDyurara · 4 games
Medusaoften banned
Munkushi~ · 3 games
Phantom Lanceroften banned
Munkushi~ · 3 games
Silenceroften banned
HappyDyurara · 3 games
Disruptor
HappyDyurara · 2 games
Earth Spirit
Muka · 2 games
Elder Titan
HappyDyurara · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
352 picks · 179 bans
Hoodwink
287 picks · 105 bans
Mars
271 picks · 419 bans
Lina
266 picks · 534 bans
Pangolier
265 picks · 363 bans
Luna
238 picks · 337 bans
Shadow Demon
233 picks · 241 bans
Nyx Assassin
220 picks · 471 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 40%
Hero pool strength52% Galactic Aliens
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:30
PuckChamp 73%Galactic Aliens 27%
The model gave 73% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Galactic Aliens in 39:40.
Game 2prediction missed32:30
PuckChamp 73%Galactic Aliens 27%
The model gave 73% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Galactic Aliens in 53:46.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 73%
Series resultPuckChamp 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2