?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
B8 Esportswin 2:1
series probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 2:1
V-Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

B8 Esports

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
[T]SA · 22 games
59%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Dendi · 20 games
55%
Lina
Linasignature
[T]SA · 15 games
67%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Watson · 15 games
53%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Limitless · 13 games
38%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Yuma · 12 games
75%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
[T]SA · 12 games
42%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Davai · 10 games
40%

V-Gaming

Lion
Lionsignature
ArrOw · 34 games
68%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Malady · 22 games
82%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
ArrOw · 21 game
71%
Lina
Linasignature
hAze · 20 games
65%
Puck
Puckoften banned
hAze · 17 games
53%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Malady · 16 games
75%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Malady · 15 games
53%
Axe
Axeoften banned
TA2000 · 13 games
46%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
351 picks · 179 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
287 picks · 103 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
270 picks · 415 bans
49%
Lina
Lina
264 picks · 529 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
262 picks · 363 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
238 picks · 336 bans
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
231 picks · 241 bans
58%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
219 picks · 471 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 73%
Hero pool strength57% V-Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total80% V-Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:32
B8 Esports 33%V-Gaming 67%
The model gave 67% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 34:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingWatson
55% · 53 games53% · 35 games
Anti-MageTA2000
Anti-Mage
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetLimitless
61% · 33 games32% · 8 games
NecrophoshAze
Necrophos
Sand King
Sand KingDendi
43% · 44 games56% · 18 games
Venomancerlaise
Venomancer
Dark Willow
Dark Willow[T]SA
35% · 33 games54% · 82 games
Monkey KingArrOw
Monkey King
47% · 20 games
BaneMalady
Bane
Game 2prediction missed39:26
B8 Esports 32%V-Gaming 68%
The model gave 68% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 35:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaDendi
50% · 64 games47% · 33 games
Shadow FiendhAze
Shadow Fiend
Juggernaut
JuggernautWatson
53% · 72 games49% · 118 games
BloodseekerTA2000
Bloodseeker
Pangolier
PangolierLimitless
41% · 146 games51% · 21 game
Venomancerlaise
Venomancer
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon[T]SA
56% · 58 games52% · 122 games
Monkey KingArrOw
Monkey King
52% · 46 games
Witch DoctorMalady
Witch Doctor
Game 3prediction missed21:9
B8 Esports 33%V-Gaming 67%
The model gave 67% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 24:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterWatson
42% · 120 games49% · 87 games
BloodseekerTA2000
Bloodseeker
Lycan
LycanLimitless
46% · 73 games46% · 126 games
Pangolierlaise
Pangolier
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritDendi
50% · 137 games58% · 122 games
TinyhAze
Tiny
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon[T]SA
52% · 101 game61% · 70 games
Dark WillowArrOw
Dark Willow
47% · 26 games
Witch DoctorMalady
Witch Doctor
Model check result
Model favoriteV-Gaming · 80%
Series resultB8 Esports 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3