OB.Moon Asian Arena · BO3
result vs prediction
Army Geniusesloss 0:2series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Ragdollwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Army Geniuses
Earth Spirit
Lym- · 15 games
Mirana
Lym- · 13 games
Marsoften banned
woMy · 10 games
Timbersawoften banned
woMy · 10 games
Pangolieroften banned
Lym- · 8 games
Axeoften banned
db- · 7 games
Broodmotheroften banned
woMy · 7 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
MamangDaya · 7 games
Ragdoll
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
351 picks · 179 bans
Hoodwink
287 picks · 103 bans
Mars
269 picks · 415 bans
Lina
263 picks · 527 bans
Pangolier
261 picks · 363 bans
Luna
237 picks · 336 bans
Shadow Demon
231 picks · 240 bans
Nyx Assassin
219 picks · 471 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)28% vs 29%
Hero pool strength55% Ragdoll
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total55% Ragdoll
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:11
Army Geniuses 45%Ragdoll 55%
The model gave 55% on Ragdoll — the game was taken by Ragdoll in 34:55.
Game 2prediction correct11:23
Army Geniuses 45%Ragdoll 55%
The model gave 55% on Ragdoll — the game was taken by Ragdoll in 36:22.
Model check result
Model favoriteRagdoll · 55%
Series resultRagdoll 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2