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European Pro League Season 34 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spirit Academyloss 1:2
series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Rune Eaterswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit Academy

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Aidar · 15 games
27%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
Aidar · 12 games
50%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
rubikon155 · 11 games
45%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
kyford · 10 games
30%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
SunshineRR · 10 games
40%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
SunshineRR · 9 games
22%
Warlock
Warlock
kyford · 9 games
11%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
rubikon155 · 8 games
25%

Rune Eaters

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
ani-san · 55 games
62%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
monodrama · 49 games
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ethereal · 44 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
ani-san · 34 games
44%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Ethereal · 34 games
44%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
Ankou · 31 game
52%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magisignature
monodrama · 31 game
81%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Ankou · 30 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
608 picks · 936 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
524 picks · 428 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
473 picks · 629 bans
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
454 picks · 596 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
439 picks · 944 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
404 picks · 244 bans
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
397 picks · 662 bans
59%
Tiny
Tiny
390 picks · 435 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 55%
Hero pool strength61% Rune Eaters
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total74% Rune Eaters
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:35
Team Spirit Academy 39%Rune Eaters 61%
The model gave 61% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 41:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
Clinkzrubikon155
64% · 94 games52% · 80 games
Weaveryowaai
Weaver
Brewmaster
Brewmasterkae
50% · 112 games53% · 268 games
Ember SpiritEthereal
Ember Spirit
Mars
Mars86
40% · 342 games47% · 248 games
Centaur WarrunnerAnkou
Centaur Warrunner
Undying
Undyingkyford
53% · 131 game52% · 86 games
Ancient Apparitionmonodrama
Ancient Apparition
Batrider
BatriderAidar
50% · 295 games44% · 292 games
Tinyani-san
Tiny
Game 2prediction missed30:18
Team Spirit Academy 36%Rune Eaters 64%
The model gave 64% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Team Spirit Academy in 36:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
Abaddonrubikon155
48% · 266 games49% · 54 games
Clinkzyowaai
Clinkz
Largo
Largokae
57% · 47 games47% · 238 games
Dragon KnightEthereal
Dragon Knight
Timbersaw
Timbersaw86
48% · 218 games55% · 59 games
EnigmaAnkou
Enigma
Dazzle
Dazzlekyford
52% · 113 games55% · 115 games
Chenmonodrama
Chen
Lion
LionAidar
45% · 65 games49% · 243 games
Tinyani-san
Tiny
Game 3prediction correct7:20
Team Spirit Academy 37%Rune Eaters 63%
The model gave 63% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 34:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
Razorrubikon155
57% · 95 games50% · 82 games
Morphlingyowaai
Morphling
Tinker
Tinker86
56% · 139 games43% · 149 games
Queen of PainEthereal
Queen of Pain
Kunkka
Kunkkakae
50% · 195 games47% · 142 games
Centaur WarrunnerAnkou
Centaur Warrunner
Dark Willow
Dark WillowAidar
43% · 220 games47% · 222 games
Jakiromonodrama
Jakiro
Undying
Undyingkyford
49% · 145 games58% · 199 games
Ringmasterani-san
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteRune Eaters · 74%
Series resultRune Eaters 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3