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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
B8 Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Creepwavewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

B8 Esports

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
[T]SA · 20 games
60%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Dendi · 20 games
55%
Lina
Linasignature
[T]SA · 13 games
69%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Watson · 13 games
54%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Yuma · 12 games
75%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Limitless · 12 games
42%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
[T]SA · 12 games
42%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Davai · 10 games
40%

Creepwave

Mars
Marsoften banned
ATF · 10 games
50%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Crystallis · 9 games
56%
Razor
Razoroften banned
ATF · 8 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Chuvash · 7 games
86%
Bane
Bane
Fishman · 6 games
17%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Chuvash · 6 games
17%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Kataomi · 6 games
67%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
349 picks · 178 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
285 picks · 103 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
267 picks · 408 bans
49%
Lina
Lina
260 picks · 519 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
260 picks · 355 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
237 picks · 332 bans
51%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
227 picks · 237 bans
58%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
219 picks · 469 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 54%
Hero pool strength51% B8 Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total71% Creepwave
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:17
B8 Esports 41%Creepwave 59%
The model gave 59% on Creepwave — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 35:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaDendi
50% · 96 games52% · 76 games
SvenCrystallis
Sven
Monkey King
Monkey KingWatson
51% · 89 games50% · 48 games
RazorATF
Razor
Lycan
LycanLimitless
50% · 41 game41% · 85 games
Batriderbzm
Batrider
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon[T]SA
57% · 61 game53% · 50 games
WindrangerChuvash
Windranger
45% · 28 games
JakiroFishman
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct9:49
B8 Esports 39%Creepwave 61%
The model gave 61% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave in 33:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingWatson
55% · 180 games45% · 60 games
UrsaCrystallis
Ursa
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainDendi
44% · 60 games51% · 153 games
Puckbzm
Puck
Magnus
MagnusLimitless
52% · 97 games45% · 190 games
MarsATF
Mars
Lina
Lina[T]SA
51% · 181 game51% · 81 game
SnapfireChuvash
Snapfire
54% · 34 games
BaneFishman
Bane
Game 3prediction correct38:32
B8 Esports 38%Creepwave 62%
The model gave 62% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave in 58:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lycan
LycanLimitless
46% · 54 games49% · 31 game
Phantom AssassinCrystallis
Phantom Assassin
Sniper
SniperWatson
43% · 3 games61% · 52 games
Tinybzm
Tiny
Viper
ViperDendi
53% · 69 games57% · 6 games
ChenChuvash
Chen
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon[T]SA
56% · 74 games38% · 33 games
Shadow ShamanFishman
Shadow Shaman
43% · 78 games
TidehunterATF
Tidehunter
Model check result
Model favoriteCreepwave · 71%
Series resultCreepwave 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3