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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
1w Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 25 games
52%
Muerta
Muerta
SumaiL · 23 games
48%
Mars
Marsoften banned
No!ob · 22 games
32%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
SumaiL · 20 games
55%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
GH · 19 games
26%
Dazzle
Dazzle
GH · 17 games
59%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ghost · 16 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
SumaiL · 16 games
44%

1w Team

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
swedenstrong · 34 games
56%
Tiny
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 33 games
73%
Warlock
Warlock
Rein · 32 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Squad1x · 29 games
45%
Tusk
Tusk
swedenstrong · 29 games
59%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Squad1x · 26 games
73%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Squad1x · 26 games
62%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Munkushi~ · 25 games
52%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
606 picks · 936 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
524 picks · 427 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
473 picks · 629 bans
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
453 picks · 595 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
439 picks · 944 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
404 picks · 244 bans
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
396 picks · 662 bans
59%
Tiny
Tiny
390 picks · 435 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 59%
Hero pool strength55% 1w Team
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total55% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:10
Nigma Galaxy 53%1w Team 47%
The model gave 53% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 47:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusarincyq
56% · 146 games44% · 74 games
Lunassnovv1
Luna
Largo
LargoNo!ob
60% · 55 games49% · 365 games
PuckSquad1x
Puck
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSumaiL
58% · 293 games44% · 257 games
Slardarмистер мораль
Slardar
Jakiro
JakiroGH
50% · 447 games50% · 261 game
Hoodwinkswedenstrong
Hoodwink
Dark Willow
Dark WillowOmaR
42% · 188 games49% · 172 games
DazzleRein
Dazzle
Game 2prediction correct27:17
Nigma Galaxy 53%1w Team 47%
The model gave 53% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 42:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinrincyq
51% · 313 games49% · 223 games
Windrangerssnovv1
Windranger
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSumaiL
44% · 570 games50% · 442 games
PuckSquad1x
Puck
Viper
ViperNo!ob
53% · 129 games50% · 137 games
Underlordмистер мораль
Underlord
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanOmaR
50% · 340 games51% · 269 games
Hoodwinkswedenstrong
Hoodwink
Dazzle
DazzleGH
54% · 208 games48% · 489 games
JakiroRein
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 55%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2