?
arrow_backBack to match
OB.Moon Asian Arena · BO3
result vs prediction
Team SMGwin 2:0
series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Sparking Arrow Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team SMG

Bloodseeker
Bloodseekersignature
Roddgeee · 19 games
63%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
AhFu · 18 games
50%
Lion
Lion
Roddgeee · 18 games
56%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Roddgeee · 17 games
71%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
kpii · 16 games
81%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
AhFu · 14 games
79%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
MidOne · 13 games
92%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
AhFu · 13 games
62%

Sparking Arrow Gaming

Phoenix
Phoenix
XCJ · 6 games
17%
Lina
Linaoften banned
7e · 5 games
0%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Son GoKu · 4 games
25%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Son GoKu · 4 games
0%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
September · 4 games
25%
Razor
Razoroften banned
7e · 4 games
0%
Snapfire
Snapfire
7e · 4 games
0%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Son GoKu · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
348 picks · 177 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
285 picks · 103 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
267 picks · 406 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
259 picks · 353 bans
50%
Lina
Lina
257 picks · 517 bans
52%
Luna
Luna
236 picks · 329 bans
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
227 picks · 235 bans
58%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
218 picks · 468 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 30%
Hero pool strength72% Team SMG
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total88% Team SMG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct46:28
Team SMG 75%Sparking Arrow Gaming 25%
The model gave 75% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 32:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
SpectreMidOne
49% · 22 games48% · 71 game
Troll WarlordMS
Troll Warlord
Lina
LinaMoon
52% · 56 games51% · 46 games
WeaverSon GoKu
Weaver
Necrophos
Necrophoskpii
64% · 10 games48% · 143 games
TinyNight
Tiny
Pangolier
PangolierRoddgeee
47% · 87 gameslittle data
DawnbreakerXCJ
Dawnbreaker
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinAhFu
54% · 85 games
Game 2prediction correct33:12
Team SMG 76%Sparking Arrow Gaming 24%
The model gave 76% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 31:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingMidOne
46% · 90 games39% · 85 games
TinyMS
Tiny
Mirana
MiranaMoon
56% · 86 games48% · 99 games
Death ProphetNight
Death Prophet
Necrophos
Necrophoskpii
59% · 13 games49% · 34 games
ViperSon GoKu
Viper
Earthshaker
EarthshakerAhFu
67% · 33 games50% · 4 games
DawnbreakerXCJ
Dawnbreaker
Pudge
PudgeRoddgeee
little data
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam SMG · 88%
Series resultTeam SMG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2