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OB.Moon Asian Arena · BO3
result vs prediction
Team SMGwin 2:0
series probability
91%9%
probability at match start · final 2:0
iG Vitalityloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team SMG

Bloodseeker
Bloodseekersignature
Roddgeee · 18 games
61%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
AhFu · 18 games
50%
Lion
Lion
Roddgeee · 18 games
56%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Roddgeee · 17 games
71%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
kpii · 16 games
81%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
AhFu · 13 games
77%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
MidOne · 13 games
92%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
AhFu · 13 games
62%

iG Vitality

Clinkz
Clinkzoften banned
ukiyo · 3 games
33%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
ukiyo · 3 games
33%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
ukiyo · 3 games
33%
Windranger
Windranger
ButterflyEffect · 3 games
0%
Lina
Linaoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 2 games
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 2 games
100%
Slark
Slarkoften banned
ukiyo · 2 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 2 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
348 picks · 176 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
285 picks · 103 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
267 picks · 406 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
259 picks · 352 bans
50%
Lina
Lina
256 picks · 516 bans
53%
Luna
Luna
235 picks · 329 bans
51%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
227 picks · 235 bans
58%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
218 picks · 468 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 15%
Hero pool strength65% Team SMG
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total91% Team SMG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:7
Team SMG 77%iG Vitality 23%
The model gave 77% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 23:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerMidOne
41% · 19 games49% · 108 games
LinaButterflyEffect
Lina
Mirana
MiranaMoon
51% · 77 games48% · 82 games
Lunaukiyo
Luna
Beastmaster
Beastmasterkpii
60% · 32 games
Elder Titan
Elder TitanAhFu
50% · 30 games
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerRoddgeee
53% · 32 games
Game 2prediction correct39:18
Team SMG 77%iG Vitality 23%
The model gave 77% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 24:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
SpectreMidOne
51% · 38 games49% · 177 games
PuckButterflyEffect
Puck
Batrider
BatriderMoon
49% · 69 games43% · 74 games
Tinyukiyo
Tiny
Necrophos
Necrophoskpii
59% · 14 games
Earthshaker
EarthshakerAhFu
61% · 43 games
Oracle
OracleRoddgeee
54% · 87 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam SMG · 91%
Series resultTeam SMG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2