OB.Moon Asian Arena · BO3
result vs predictionMYM Yloss 1:2
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Lilgunwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
M Y
Elder Titan
MyPro · 4 games
Lycanoften banned
KNP · 4 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Beebie · 4 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Beebie · 4 games
Bane
LionaX · 3 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
KNP · 3 games
Brewmasteroften banned
LionaX · 3 games
Disruptor
LionaX · 3 games
Lilgun
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
350 picks · 175 bans
Hoodwink
295 picks · 107 bans
Mars
265 picks · 409 bans
Pangolier
259 picks · 350 bans
Lina
258 picks · 515 bans
Luna
237 picks · 332 bans
Shadow Demon
227 picks · 238 bans
Nyx Assassin
220 picks · 471 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)22% vs 33%
Hero pool strength55% Lilgun
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total57% Lilgun
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:40
M Y 43%Lilgun 57%
The model gave 57% on Lilgun — the game was taken by Lilgun in 51:43.
Game 2prediction missed34:23
M Y 43%Lilgun 57%
The model gave 57% on Lilgun — the game was taken by M Y in 42:00.
Game 3prediction correct17:29
M Y 43%Lilgun 57%
The model gave 57% on Lilgun — the game was taken by Lilgun in 34:59.
Model check result
Model favoriteLilgun · 57%
Series resultLilgun 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3