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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Zero Tenacityloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Mira · 31 game
58%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Oli · 31 game
55%
Mars
Marssignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 30 games
63%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mikoto · 26 games
54%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 26 games
69%
Ursa
Ursasignature
Nightfall · 25 games
64%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 23 games
70%
Warlock
Warlock
Kaori · 22 games
59%

Zero Tenacity

Disruptor
Disruptor
Se · 42 games
60%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Worick · 40 games
53%
Warlock
Warlock
MoOz · 36 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 33 games
64%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
MoOz · 33 games
52%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Kami · 32 games
63%
Bristleback
Bristleback
Nefrit · 32 games
56%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nefrit · 32 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
603 picks · 935 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
525 picks · 428 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
473 picks · 628 bans
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
454 picks · 599 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
437 picks · 946 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
403 picks · 243 bans
46%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
395 picks · 662 bans
59%
Tiny
Tiny
388 picks · 434 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 63%
Hero pool strength53% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total87% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:41
Aurora Gaming 73%Zero Tenacity 27%
The model gave 73% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 51:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenNightfall
48% · 130 games49% · 129 games
LifestealerKami
Lifestealer
Viper
ViperLorenof
49% · 64 games53% · 104 games
InvokerWorick
Invoker
Timbersaw
TimbersawWs
55% · 141 game54% · 336 games
Centaur WarrunnerNefrit
Centaur Warrunner
Dark Willow
Dark WillowMira
42% · 153 games44% · 142 games
PhoenixMoOz
Phoenix
Jakiro
JakiroKaori
49% · 453 games56% · 230 games
HoodwinkdEsire
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct26:10
Aurora Gaming 74%Zero Tenacity 26%
The model gave 74% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 29:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaNightfall
48% · 260 games48% · 443 games
BeastmasterWorick
Beastmaster
Timbersaw
TimbersawWs
48% · 223 games44% · 365 games
WindrangerKami
Windranger
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritLorenof
57% · 421 game55% · 481 game
Centaur WarrunnerNefrit
Centaur Warrunner
Tiny
TinyMira
48% · 502 games50% · 258 games
Dark WillowdEsire
Dark Willow
Jakiro
JakiroKaori
49% · 591 game53% · 450 games
Shadow ShamanMoOz
Shadow Shaman
Game 3prediction correct24:16
Aurora Gaming 72%Zero Tenacity 28%
The model gave 72% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 40:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinNightfall
61% · 90 games49% · 345 games
TerrorbladeKami
Terrorblade
Viper
ViperLorenof
48% · 71 game52% · 113 games
BrewmasterNefrit
Brewmaster
Slardar
SlardarWs
47% · 191 game51% · 87 games
SniperWorick
Sniper
Warlock
WarlockKaori
52% · 255 games46% · 93 games
Nyx AssassindEsire
Nyx Assassin
Tusk
TuskMira
48% · 342 games47% · 311 games
Shadow DemonMoOz
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 87%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3