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European Pro League Season 34 · BO3
result vs prediction
Winter Bearwin 2:0
series probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HULIGANIloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Winter Bear

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Panda · 5 games
80%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Panda · 5 games
60%
Warlock
Warlock
Delight · 5 games
20%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Panda · 4 games
0%
Alchemist
Alchemist
4IVAN · 3 games
100%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Panda · 3 games
0%
Huskar
Huskaroften banned
Panda · 3 games
33%
Marci
Marcioften banned
waveformn · 3 games
100%

HULIGANI

Mars
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 44 games
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 40 games
68%
Chen
Chensignature
RESPECT · 36 games
64%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
slimeyao · 35 games
69%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
slimeyao · 33 games
70%
Snapfire
Snapfire
RESPECT · 33 games
52%
Tusk
Tusk
slimeyao · 33 games
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
slimeyao · 32 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
603 picks · 935 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
523 picks · 428 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
474 picks · 626 bans
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
455 picks · 598 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
437 picks · 946 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
403 picks · 242 bans
46%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
395 picks · 663 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
386 picks · 528 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 63%
Hero pool strength55% HULIGANI
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total80% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed42:26
Winter Bear 33%HULIGANI 67%
The model gave 67% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 49:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
Muertazuyzyan
55% · 340 games53% · 188 games
Shadow Fiendv1olent-
Shadow Fiend
Void Spirit
Void SpiritPanda
49% · 396 games49% · 524 games
PuckMirage
Puck
Razor
RazorfortniteMan
55% · 115 games48% · 440 games
TinyBb3px
Tiny
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonDelight
49% · 419 games48% · 522 games
JakiroRESPECT
Jakiro
Tusk
Tuskwaveformn
46% · 675 games48% · 271 game
Dark Willowsayuw
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction missed27:18
Winter Bear 33%HULIGANI 67%
The model gave 67% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 27:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterPanda
50% · 400 games50% · 333 games
Gyrocopterv1olent-
Gyrocopter
Kez
Kezzuyzyan
55% · 54 games50% · 192 games
UnderlordBb3px
Underlord
Dark Seer
Dark SeerfortniteMan
49% · 195 games58% · 62 games
RazorMirage
Razor
Tusk
Tuskwaveformn
45% · 512 games49% · 415 games
Tinysayuw
Tiny
Phoenix
PhoenixDelight
50% · 187 games48% · 346 games
RingmasterRESPECT
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 80%
Series resultWinter Bear 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2