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BTS Pro Series Season 8. ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Team SMGloss 1:2
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:2
BOOM Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team SMG

Lion
Lion
Roddgeee · 18 games
56%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Roddgeee · 16 games
69%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
AhFu · 16 games
50%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
kpii · 15 games
80%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
Moon · 13 games
92%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekersignature
Roddgeee · 12 games
67%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
AhFu · 12 games
67%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
MidOne · 11 games
91%

BOOM Esports

Lion
Lion
Hyde · 19 games
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Khezcute · 17 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Tims · 14 games
64%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Fbz · 13 games
54%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Yopaj · 13 games
92%
Io
Iosignature
Skem · 12 games
83%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 10 games
80%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Mikoto · 10 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
353 picks · 176 bans
54%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
300 picks · 110 bans
48%
Lina
Lina
264 picks · 502 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
259 picks · 415 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
255 picks · 347 bans
51%
Luna
Luna
240 picks · 331 bans
51%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
225 picks · 237 bans
59%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
224 picks · 477 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 61%
Hero pool strength52% Team SMG
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total54% Team SMG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:49
Team SMG 52%BOOM Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 44:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyMidOne
53% · 130 games48% · 88 games
GyrocopterPalos
Gyrocopter
Mirana
MiranaMoon
52% · 138 games48% · 73 games
InvokerYopaj
Invoker
Earthshaker
EarthshakerAhFu
59% · 45 games52% · 130 games
Monkey KingTims
Monkey King
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritkpii
52% · 28 games46% · 42 games
Night StalkerFbz
Night Stalker
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightRoddgeee
52% · 130 games40% · 138 games
GrimstrokeSkem
Grimstroke
Game 2prediction correct11:38
Team SMG 49%BOOM Esports 51%
The model gave 51% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 29:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetMidOne
52% · 56 games49% · 110 games
SnapfireYopaj
Snapfire
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMoon
47% · 131 game51% · 132 games
TinyPalos
Tiny
Night Stalker
Night Stalkerkpii
40% · 45 games47% · 181 game
Death ProphetFbz
Death Prophet
Pangolier
PangolierRoddgeee
50% · 193 games58% · 59 games
WeaverTims
Weaver
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeAhFu
54% · 203 games50% · 146 games
BloodseekerSkem
Bloodseeker
Game 3prediction missed12:28
Team SMG 54%BOOM Esports 46%
The model gave 54% on Team SMG — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 31:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterMidOne
53% · 10 games48% · 65 games
BloodseekerPalos
Bloodseeker
Silencer
SilencerMoon
51% · 13 games45% · 28 games
KunkkaYopaj
Kunkka
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritkpii
56% · 24 games48% · 38 games
BeastmasterFbz
Beastmaster
Earthshaker
EarthshakerAhFu
53% · 44 games35% · 12 games
SnapfireTims
Snapfire
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightRoddgeee
55% · 84 games46% · 32 games
EnchantressSkem
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam SMG · 54%
Series resultBOOM Esports 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3