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European Pro League Season 34 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 1:2
series probability
17%83%
probability at match start · final 1:2
strongboyswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere Junior

Snapfire
Snapfire
Gothic- · 11 games
27%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
Gothic- · 10 games
20%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Hyugadoto · 9 games
11%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
gbc · 8 games
0%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Gothic- · 8 games
13%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
rubikon155 · 8 games
13%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Hyugadoto · 7 games
0%
Puck
Puckoften banned
gbc · 7 games
14%

strongboys

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Lowskill · 11 games
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ponlo · 11 games
45%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Stojkov · 11 games
73%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Ponlo · 10 games
70%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
ChodΣX · 9 games
44%
Marci
Marcisignature
ChodΣX · 8 games
75%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
Tobi · 8 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Tobi · 7 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
603 picks · 937 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
523 picks · 431 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
476 picks · 628 bans
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
454 picks · 603 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
435 picks · 948 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
402 picks · 243 bans
46%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
396 picks · 662 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
388 picks · 529 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 61%
Hero pool strength70% strongboys
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total83% strongboys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed42:17
Natus Vincere Junior 29%strongboys 71%
The model gave 71% on strongboys — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 51:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaonLiTaL
53% · 222 games55% · 146 games
Morphlingbashka
Morphling
Batrider
Batriderkrol9ash
47% · 214 games50% · 46 games
LargoChodΣX
Largo
Tiny
TinyGothic-
45% · 400 games53% · 124 games
EarthshakerStojkov
Earthshaker
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorHyugadoto
59% · 72 games45% · 216 games
Shadow DemonPonlo
Shadow Demon
46% · 376 games
JakiroUndyne_
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct12:37
Natus Vincere Junior 29%strongboys 71%
The model gave 71% on strongboys — the game was taken by strongboys in 29:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasteronLiTaL
48% · 339 games55% · 133 games
Shadow FiendStojkov
Shadow Fiend
Underlord
Underlordkrol9ash
47% · 166 games53% · 48 games
Kezbashka
Kez
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonHyugadoto
51% · 284 games51% · 117 games
PhoenixChodΣX
Phoenix
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidGothic-
52% · 71 game49% · 286 games
TinyPonlo
Tiny
46% · 276 games
WarlockUndyne_
Warlock
Game 3prediction correct8:36
Natus Vincere Junior 29%strongboys 71%
The model gave 71% on strongboys — the game was taken by strongboys in 30:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightonLiTaL
51% · 431 game48% · 64 games
Lunabashka
Luna
Brewmaster
Brewmasterkrol9ash
49% · 136 games52% · 152 games
Shadow FiendStojkov
Shadow Fiend
Largo
LargoGothic-
52% · 55 games49% · 275 games
MarsChodΣX
Mars
Jakiro
JakiroHyugadoto
50% · 489 games56% · 204 games
MuertaPonlo
Muerta
44% · 416 games
TuskUndyne_
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoritestrongboys · 83%
Series resultstrongboys 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3