Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChamploss 0:2series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Creepwavewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Creepwave
Marsoften banned
ATF · 9 games
Razoroften banned
ATF · 8 games
Svenoften banned
Crystallis · 8 games
Bane
Fishman · 6 games
Dark Willow
Chuvash · 6 games
Disruptorsignature
Kataomi · 6 games
Hoodwinksignature
Chuvash · 6 games
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
356 picks · 176 bans
Hoodwink
308 picks · 113 bans
Lina
267 picks · 503 bans
Mars
262 picks · 423 bans
Pangolier
255 picks · 350 bans
Luna
245 picks · 335 bans
Nyx Assassin
229 picks · 488 bans
Shadow Demon
229 picks · 240 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% PuckChamp
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total55% Creepwave
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:7
PuckChamp 45%Creepwave 55%
The model gave 55% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave in 23:31.
Game 2prediction correct20:25
PuckChamp 45%Creepwave 55%
The model gave 55% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave in 37:13.
Model check result
Model favoriteCreepwave · 55%
Series resultCreepwave 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2