IESF World Championship 2021. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Россияwin 2:0series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Казахстанloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Россия
No games played over 6 months.
Казахстан
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
362 picks · 177 bans
Hoodwink
314 picks · 116 bans
Lina
271 picks · 503 bans
Mars
264 picks · 426 bans
Pangolier
255 picks · 347 bans
Luna
248 picks · 336 bans
Shadow Demon
230 picks · 242 bans
Nyx Assassin
229 picks · 493 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 75%
Hero pool strength50% Россия
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% Казахстан
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteКазахстан · 75%
Series resultРоссия 2:0
Series predictionmissed