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BTS Pro Series Season 8. ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Team SMGwin 2:1
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Execrationloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team SMG

Lion
Lion
Roddgeee · 18 games
56%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Roddgeee · 15 games
67%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
AhFu · 15 games
53%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
kpii · 14 games
79%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
AhFu · 13 games
69%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
Moon · 13 games
92%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekersignature
Roddgeee · 12 games
67%
Mars
Marsoften banned
kpii · 10 games
50%

Execration

Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Tino- · 18 games
61%
Puck
Pucksignature
Bob · 15 games
60%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
RR · 14 games
64%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
RR · 14 games
71%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Bob · 12 games
50%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
RR · 12 games
58%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Yowe · 12 games
58%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Palos · 11 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
367 picks · 179 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
329 picks · 120 bans
48%
Lina
Lina
274 picks · 505 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
263 picks · 436 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
254 picks · 343 bans
52%
Luna
Luna
253 picks · 341 bans
51%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
239 picks · 510 bans
55%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
231 picks · 483 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 38%
Hero pool strength53% Team SMG
Head-to-head5 – 2
Model total69% Team SMG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:38
Team SMG 60%Execration 40%
The model gave 60% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Execration in 35:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMidOne
57% · 147 games54% · 77 games
LinaBob
Lina
Sniper
SniperMoon
50% · 6 games53% · 111 games
Monkey KingTino-
Monkey King
Lycan
Lycankpii
50% · 96 games50% · 192 games
MarsLuciano
Mars
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeAhFu
42% · 217 games47% · 151 game
PangolierRR
Pangolier
Weaver
WeaverRoddgeee
49% · 65 games
Game 2prediction correct36:39
Team SMG 64%Execration 36%
The model gave 64% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 43:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingMidOne
50% · 109 games49% · 76 games
GyrocopterTino-
Gyrocopter
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMoon
54% · 112 games50% · 198 games
Void SpiritBob
Void Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritkpii
55% · 34 games45% · 65 games
LycanLuciano
Lycan
Elder Titan
Elder TitanAhFu
58% · 77 games46% · 29 games
Ogre MagiRR
Ogre Magi
Brewmaster
BrewmasterRoddgeee
38% · 36 games
Game 3prediction correct23:7
Team SMG 60%Execration 40%
The model gave 60% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 25:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaMoon
51% · 126 games56% · 94 games
Templar AssassinBob
Templar Assassin
Wraith King
Wraith KingMidOne
52% · 148 games48% · 98 games
TinyTino-
Tiny
Necrophos
Necrophoskpii
57% · 16 games40% · 247 games
MarsLuciano
Mars
Earthshaker
EarthshakerAhFu
66% · 37 games45% · 19 games
SilencerRR
Silencer
Abaddon
AbaddonRoddgeee
47% · 131 game
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam SMG · 69%
Series resultTeam SMG 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3