?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
B8 Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Bramewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

B8 Esports

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
[T]SA · 20 games
60%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Dendi · 17 games
65%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Yuma · 12 games
75%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Watson · 11 games
55%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
[T]SA · 11 games
45%
Lina
Linaoften banned
[T]SA · 9 games
56%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Davai · 9 games
44%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Limitless · 8 games
50%

Brame

Lina
Linaoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 14 games
43%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 10 games
50%
Axe
Axeoften banned
SkyLark · 9 games
56%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SkyLark · 9 games
56%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
W1sh- · 9 games
44%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
SsaSpartan · 8 games
63%
Puck
Puckoften banned
W1sh- · 8 games
38%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
SkyLark · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
368 picks · 179 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
331 picks · 121 bans
48%
Lina
Lina
272 picks · 506 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
262 picks · 434 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
255 picks · 341 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
254 picks · 341 bans
52%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
239 picks · 512 bans
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
230 picks · 236 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 36%
Hero pool strength52% B8 Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total57% B8 Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:40
B8 Esports 56%Brame 44%
The model gave 56% on B8 Esports — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 57:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaWatson
54% · 113 games57% · 67 games
UrsaNefrit
Ursa
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritDendi
51% · 81 game48% · 37 games
RazorW1sh-
Razor
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderLimitless
41% · 62 games51% · 76 games
BloodseekerSkyLark
Bloodseeker
Dark Willow
Dark Willow[T]SA
48% · 95 games49% · 171 game
LionCTOMAHEH1
Lion
little data
DawnbreakerSsaSpartan
Dawnbreaker
Game 2prediction missed31:34
B8 Esports 54%Brame 46%
The model gave 54% on B8 Esports — the game was taken by Brame in 48:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingWatson
53% · 80 games55% · 70 games
TerrorbladeNefrit
Terrorblade
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainDendi
41% · 29 games49% · 76 games
LinaW1sh-
Lina
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritLimitless
49% · 37 games43% · 41 game
Sand KingSkyLark
Sand King
Mirana
Mirana[T]SA
53% · 114 games53% · 41 game
WindrangerCTOMAHEH1
Windranger
45% · 32 games
BaneSsaSpartan
Bane
Game 3prediction missed16:30
B8 Esports 57%Brame 43%
The model gave 57% on B8 Esports — the game was taken by Brame in 34:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistWatson
67% · 41 game51% · 57 games
JuggernautNefrit
Juggernaut
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritDendi
54% · 110 games40% · 122 games
MarsW1sh-
Mars
Brewmaster
BrewmasterLimitless
53% · 61 game49% · 23 games
AxeSkyLark
Axe
Weaver
Weaver[T]SA
50% · 30 games40% · 40 games
LinaCTOMAHEH1
Lina
little data
SilencerSsaSpartan
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteB8 Esports · 57%
Series resultBrame 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3