Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChamploss 1:2series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Winstrike Teamwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Winstrike Team
Abaddonoften banned
Panto · 13 games
Linaoften banned
re1bl · 13 games
Lion
yamich · 13 games
Marssignature
chshrct · 13 games
Phoenix
yamich · 12 games
Axeoften banned
chshrct · 11 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Panto · 10 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
yamich · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
368 picks · 179 bans
Hoodwink
331 picks · 121 bans
Lina
271 picks · 506 bans
Mars
261 picks · 433 bans
Luna
255 picks · 341 bans
Pangolier
252 picks · 340 bans
Nyx Assassin
239 picks · 512 bans
Terrorblade
230 picks · 485 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 48%
Hero pool strength55% PuckChamp
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total60% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:33
PuckChamp 60%Winstrike Team 40%
The model gave 60% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 37:09.
Game 2prediction missed20:33
PuckChamp 60%Winstrike Team 40%
The model gave 60% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 28:26.
Game 3prediction missed16:31
PuckChamp 60%Winstrike Team 40%
The model gave 60% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 48:02.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 60%
Series resultWinstrike Team 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3