Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 4 · BO3
result vs predictionGAGalactic Aliensloss 0:2
series probability
15%85%
probability at match start · final 0:2
V-Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Galactic Aliens
Monkey Kingoften banned
Muka · 4 games
Bane
HappyDyurara · 3 games
Medusaoften banned
Munkushi~ · 2 games
Phantom Lanceroften banned
Munkushi~ · 2 games
Silenceroften banned
HappyDyurara · 2 games
Disruptor
HappyDyurara · 1 game
Elder Titan
Muka · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
kiyotaka · 1 game
V-Gaming
Lionsignature
ArrOw · 31 game
Treant Protectorsignature
Malady · 22 games
Shadow Demonsignature
ArrOw · 21 game
Linasignature
hAze · 20 games
Puckoften banned
hAze · 17 games
Abaddonoften banned
Malady · 15 games
Disruptorsignature
Malady · 14 games
Axeoften banned
TA2000 · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
364 picks · 179 bans
Hoodwink
331 picks · 121 bans
Lina
271 picks · 501 bans
Mars
260 picks · 431 bans
Luna
253 picks · 340 bans
Pangolier
251 picks · 338 bans
Nyx Assassin
239 picks · 512 bans
Terrorblade
230 picks · 481 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 71%
Hero pool strength52% V-Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total85% V-Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:30
Galactic Aliens 30%V-Gaming 70%
The model gave 70% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 36:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenMunkushi~
LunaTA2000
Monkey KingMuka
TinyhAze
DisruptorHappyDyurara
Bloodseekerlaise
50% · 91 game
LionArrOw
44% · 38 games
Night StalkerMalady
Game 2prediction correct17:46
Galactic Aliens 29%V-Gaming 71%
The model gave 71% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 35:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaMunkushi~
WeaverTA2000
Shadow DemonMuka
Night Stalkerlaise
DawnbreakerHappyDyurara
InvokerhAze
36% · 11 games
Witch DoctorMalady
41% · 99 games
LionArrOw
Model check result
Model favoriteV-Gaming · 85%
Series resultV-Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2