OB.Moon Asian Arena · BO3
result vs prediction
Lilgunloss 0:2series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Army Geniuseswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Lilgun
No games played over 6 months.
Army Geniuses
Earth Spirit
Lym- · 15 games
Mirana
Lym- · 12 games
Timbersawoften banned
woMy · 10 games
Marsoften banned
woMy · 9 games
Axeoften banned
db- · 7 games
Broodmotheroften banned
woMy · 7 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
MamangDaya · 7 games
Hoodwink
Lym- · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
366 picks · 176 bans
Hoodwink
331 picks · 121 bans
Lina
271 picks · 498 bans
Mars
258 picks · 430 bans
Luna
254 picks · 340 bans
Pangolier
252 picks · 336 bans
Nyx Assassin
242 picks · 512 bans
Terrorblade
233 picks · 480 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 27%
Hero pool strength54% Lilgun
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total62% Lilgun
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteLilgun · 62%
Series resultArmy Geniuses 0:2
Series predictionmissed