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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Inner Circleloss 1:2
series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Virtus.prowin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Inner Circle

Warlock
Warlock
Se · 24 games
42%
Tusk
Tusk
Daze · 23 games
39%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 22 games
45%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Norma · 22 games
41%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Norma · 18 games
22%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Se · 17 games
35%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
niche · 16 games
25%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Fernans · 16 games
56%

Virtus.pro

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Fly · 29 games
45%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Antares · 28 games
64%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Abed · 23 games
52%
Mars
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 23 games
48%
Puck
Pucksignature
Abed · 23 games
74%
Warlock
Warlock
Fly · 23 games
52%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Antares · 18 games
33%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Abed · 16 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
606 picks · 940 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
525 picks · 433 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
477 picks · 634 bans
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
460 picks · 612 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
435 picks · 957 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
401 picks · 242 bans
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
399 picks · 666 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
394 picks · 532 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 42%
Hero pool strength56% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total73% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:11
Inner Circle 39%Virtus.pro 61%
The model gave 61% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Inner Circle in 37:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga Siren423
56% · 158 games50% · 124 games
SvenTimado
Sven
Viper
Viperniche
49% · 82 games43% · 180 games
WindrangerAbed
Windranger
Enigma
Enigmalaise
59% · 138 games53% · 229 games
MarsSabeRLight-
Mars
Tiny
TinyJing
52% · 484 games48% · 166 games
Ancient ApparitionFly
Ancient Apparition
Dazzle
DazzleSe
45% · 163 games44% · 326 games
TuskHellscream
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct15:17
Inner Circle 38%Virtus.pro 62%
The model gave 62% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 40:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursa423
49% · 226 games49% · 134 games
Troll WarlordTimado
Troll Warlord
Kunkka
Kunkkaniche
49% · 94 games47% · 159 games
Primal BeastSabeRLight-
Primal Beast
Tidehunter
Tidehunterlaise
53% · 158 games52% · 321 game
SlardarAbed
Slardar
Tiny
TinyJing
45% · 257 games58% · 208 games
ChenFly
Chen
Warlock
WarlockSe
49% · 308 games47% · 221 game
Dark WillowHellscream
Dark Willow
Game 3prediction correct18:21
Inner Circle 36%Virtus.pro 64%
The model gave 64% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 45:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursa423
47% · 246 games50% · 251 game
Templar AssassinTimado
Templar Assassin
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritniche
46% · 439 games54% · 535 games
Ember SpiritAbed
Ember Spirit
Timbersaw
Timbersawlaise
49% · 210 games53% · 261 game
TidehunterSabeRLight-
Tidehunter
Dazzle
DazzleSe
44% · 146 games60% · 180 games
ChenFly
Chen
Tiny
TinyJing
45% · 501 game52% · 315 games
Shadow DemonHellscream
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 73%
Series resultVirtus.pro 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3