Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChampwin 2:0series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 2:0
V-Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
V-Gaming
Lionsignature
ArrOw · 29 games
Treant Protectorsignature
Malady · 22 games
Shadow Demonsignature
ArrOw · 21 game
Linasignature
hAze · 20 games
Puckoften banned
hAze · 17 games
Abaddonoften banned
Malady · 15 games
Axeoften banned
TA2000 · 13 games
Disruptorsignature
Malady · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
364 picks · 176 bans
Hoodwink
331 picks · 121 bans
Lina
270 picks · 497 bans
Mars
258 picks · 430 bans
Luna
254 picks · 339 bans
Pangolier
252 picks · 336 bans
Nyx Assassin
242 picks · 512 bans
Terrorblade
233 picks · 480 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 73%
Hero pool strength59% V-Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total74% V-Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:24
PuckChamp 26%V-Gaming 74%
The model gave 74% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 37:11.
Game 2prediction correct27:27
PuckChamp 26%V-Gaming 74%
The model gave 74% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 40:54.
Model check result
Model favoriteV-Gaming · 74%
Series resultPuckChamp 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2