OB.Moon Asian Arena · BO3
result vs prediction
Neon Esportswin 2:0series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MYM Yloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Neon Esports
Miranasignature
PlayHard · 30 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
PlayHard · 28 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Skem · 23 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Yopaj · 21 game
Puckoften banned
Yopaj · 20 games
Tusk
Jaunuel · 19 games
Leshracoften banned
Deth · 17 games
Lion
Jaunuel · 17 games
M Y
Elder Titan
MyPro · 4 games
Lycanoften banned
KNP · 4 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Beebie · 4 games
Bane
LionaX · 3 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
KNP · 3 games
Brewmasteroften banned
LionaX · 3 games
Disruptor
LionaX · 3 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
LionaX · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
362 picks · 176 bans
Hoodwink
331 picks · 121 bans
Lina
270 picks · 495 bans
Mars
256 picks · 430 bans
Luna
254 picks · 338 bans
Pangolier
250 picks · 336 bans
Nyx Assassin
242 picks · 512 bans
Terrorblade
233 picks · 479 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 24%
Hero pool strength58% Neon Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total80% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:16
Neon Esports 66%M Y 34%
The model gave 66% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 39:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingUnknown-
GyrocopterKNP
Queen of PainMikoto
ViperBeebie
Pangolierxiaoyu154
MarsMyPro
LionNARMAN
AbaddonLionaX
TidehunterJaunuel
Game 2prediction correct39:19
Neon Esports 66%M Y 34%
The model gave 66% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 41:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterUnknown-
Troll WarlordKNP
Queen of PainMikoto
Void SpiritBeebie
RubickNARMAN
TidehunterLionaX
Marsxiaoyu154
LionMyPro
PangolierJaunuel
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 80%
Series resultNeon Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2