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OB.Moon Asian Arena · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 0:2
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Omega Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Tino- · 18 games
61%
Puck
Pucksignature
Bob · 15 games
60%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
RR · 14 games
64%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
RR · 14 games
71%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
RR · 12 games
58%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Yowe · 12 games
58%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Palos · 11 games
55%
Doom
Doomsignature
Force · 10 games
80%

Omega Esports

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Sam_H · 9 games
78%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Tino- · 9 games
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Sam_H · 8 games
38%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
cml · 8 games
50%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
cml · 7 games
29%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Mac · 6 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mac · 6 games
33%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
Sam_H · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
360 picks · 176 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
331 picks · 121 bans
48%
Lina
Lina
270 picks · 495 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
256 picks · 429 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
254 picks · 338 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
250 picks · 335 bans
51%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
242 picks · 512 bans
56%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
233 picks · 479 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 13%
Hero pool strength56% Execration
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total78% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:49
Execration 78%Omega Esports 22%
The model gave 78% on Execration — the game was taken by Omega Esports in 53:20.
Game 2prediction missed23:41
Execration 78%Omega Esports 22%
The model gave 78% on Execration — the game was taken by Omega Esports in 37:54.
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 78%
Series resultOmega Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2