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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
qwerty44loss 0:2
series probability
19%81%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Winstrike Teamwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

qwerty44

Invoker
Invokeroften banned
USHUSHUSH · 7 games
14%
Bane
Bane
Fezor · 3 games
0%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Kom4rt · 3 games
0%
Clinkz
Clinkzoften banned
Kom4rt · 3 games
33%
Omniknight
Omniknightoften banned
Fezor · 3 games
0%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
USHUSHUSH · 3 games
0%
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lanceroften banned
Kom4rt · 3 games
0%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernoften banned
Fezor · 3 games
0%

Winstrike Team

Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Panto · 13 games
38%
Lina
Linaoften banned
re1bl · 13 games
54%
Lion
Lion
yamich · 13 games
38%
Mars
Marssignature
chshrct · 13 games
62%
Phoenix
Phoenix
yamich · 12 games
33%
Axe
Axeoften banned
chshrct · 11 games
18%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Panto · 10 games
40%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
yamich · 10 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
364 picks · 177 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
332 picks · 121 bans
48%
Lina
Lina
273 picks · 496 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
257 picks · 429 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
253 picks · 342 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
249 picks · 335 bans
51%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
246 picks · 515 bans
56%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
234 picks · 485 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)28% vs 43%
Hero pool strength56% Winstrike Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% Winstrike Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:34
qwerty44 32%Winstrike Team 68%
The model gave 68% on Winstrike Team — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 44:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaKom4rt
53% · 122 games47% · 59 games
Terrorbladedyrachyo
Terrorblade
Beastmaster
BeastmasterUSHUSHUSH
58% · 107 games40% · 28 games
Night Stalkerchshrct
Night Stalker
Bane
BaneFezor
58% · 48 games39% · 86 games
Void Spiritmellojul
Void Spirit
44% · 47 games
Monkey Kingyamich
Monkey King
51% · 57 games
EnchantressPanto
Enchantress
Game 2prediction correct12:43
qwerty44 31%Winstrike Team 69%
The model gave 69% on Winstrike Team — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 31:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tinker
TinkerUSHUSHUSH
little data45% · 16 games
Leshracmellojul
Leshrac
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerKom4rt
47% · 63 games54% · 27 games
Monkey Kingdyrachyo
Monkey King
Bane
BaneFezor
53% · 24 games38% · 4 games
Slardarchshrct
Slardar
54% · 25 games
Weaveryamich
Weaver
53% · 15 games
OraclePanto
Oracle
Model check result
Model favoriteWinstrike Team · 81%
Series resultWinstrike Team 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2