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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Galactic Alienswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
Heaven · 24 games
54%
Mars
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 23 games
48%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Ainkrad · 20 games
60%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Lodine · 18 games
44%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Heaven · 17 games
41%
Lina
Linasignature
Heaven · 15 games
67%
Lion
Lion
Lodine · 15 games
40%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Ainkrad · 15 games
60%

Galactic Aliens

Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Munkushi~ · 2 games
50%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
HappyDyurara · 2 games
100%
Bane
Bane
HappyDyurara · 1 game
100%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Muka · 1 game
100%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
kiyotaka · 1 game
0%
Lina
Linaoften banned
kiyotaka · 1 game
0%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Muka · 1 game
100%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
HappyDyurara · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
365 picks · 177 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
332 picks · 121 bans
48%
Lina
Lina
273 picks · 494 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
256 picks · 427 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
253 picks · 341 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
249 picks · 332 bans
51%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
246 picks · 516 bans
56%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
234 picks · 486 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Galactic Aliens
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:30
Nemiga Gaming 60%Galactic Aliens 40%
The model gave 60% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Galactic Aliens in 34:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracAinkrad
38% · 62 games53% · 107 games
JuggernautMunkushi~
Juggernaut
Weaver
WeaverKiritych
54% · 30 games59% · 32 games
BaneHappyDyurara
Bane
Beastmaster
BeastmasterTheChosenOne
66% · 40 games48% · 100 games
Monkey KingMuka
Monkey King
Rubick
RubickHeaven
40% · 50 games
Abaddon
AbaddonLodine
45% · 57 games
Game 2prediction correct36:21
Nemiga Gaming 60%Galactic Aliens 40%
The model gave 60% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 33:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenKiritych
47% · 41 game48% · 74 games
LunaMunkushi~
Luna
Batrider
BatriderAinkrad
42% · 48 games56% · 98 games
Monkey KingMuka
Monkey King
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerTheChosenOne
43% · 6 games59% · 29 games
BaneHappyDyurara
Bane
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightLodine
52% · 68 games
Dark Willow
Dark WillowHeaven
45% · 38 games
Game 3prediction missed25:31
Nemiga Gaming 62%Galactic Aliens 38%
The model gave 62% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Galactic Aliens in 36:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverKiritych
55% · 29 games54% · 53 games
Phantom LancerMunkushi~
Phantom Lancer
Axe
AxeTheChosenOne
45% · 14 games45% · 107 games
Monkey KingMuka
Monkey King
Mars
MarsAinkrad
44% · 110 games51% · 45 games
DisruptorHappyDyurara
Disruptor
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonHeaven
59% · 41 game
Jakiro
JakiroLodine
47% · 11 games
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 72%
Series resultGalactic Aliens 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3