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OB.Moon Asian Arena · BO2
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 1:1
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 1:1
M Yloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Tino- · 18 games
61%
Puck
Pucksignature
Bob · 15 games
60%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
RR · 14 games
64%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
RR · 14 games
71%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
RR · 12 games
58%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Yowe · 12 games
58%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Palos · 11 games
55%
Doom
Doomsignature
Force · 10 games
80%

M Y

Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Beebie · 4 games
25%
Bane
Bane
LionaX · 3 games
33%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
LionaX · 3 games
33%
Disruptor
Disruptor
LionaX · 3 games
0%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
MyPro · 3 games
33%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
KNP · 3 games
33%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
LionaX · 3 games
33%
Sven
Svenoften banned
KNP · 3 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
365 picks · 175 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
332 picks · 121 bans
48%
Lina
Lina
272 picks · 494 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
256 picks · 426 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
253 picks · 341 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
249 picks · 331 bans
51%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
246 picks · 515 bans
56%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
234 picks · 485 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 20%
Hero pool strength62% Execration
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total68% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct47:13
Execration 60%M Y 40%
The model gave 60% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 26:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendBob
59% · 21 game60% · 7 games
MedusaKNP
Medusa
Riki
RikiTino-
33% · 17 games53% · 31 game
Void SpiritBeebie
Void Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritRR
59% · 21 game38% · 21 game
BloodseekerMyPro
Bloodseeker
Game 2prediction missed14:31
Execration 62%M Y 38%
The model gave 62% on Execration — the game was taken by M Y in 30:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
SpectreTino-
48% · 34 games42% · 11 games
LycanKNP
Lycan
Invoker
InvokerBob
56% · 82 games50% · 84 games
LinaBeebie
Lina
Silencer
SilencerRR
40% · 16 games52% · 37 games
Elder TitanMyPro
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 68%
Accuracy by game1 of 2