?
arrow_backBack to match
OB.Moon Asian Arena · BO2
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 2:0
series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Army Geniusesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Lion
Lion
Hyde · 18 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Khezcute · 17 games
59%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Fbz · 13 games
54%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Tims · 13 games
62%
Io
Iosignature
Skem · 10 games
80%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Mikoto · 10 games
60%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Mikoto · 10 games
90%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Hyde · 10 games
70%

Army Geniuses

Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Lym- · 15 games
53%
Mirana
Mirana
Lym- · 12 games
42%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
woMy · 10 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
woMy · 8 games
13%
Axe
Axeoften banned
db- · 7 games
57%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
woMy · 7 games
29%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
MamangDaya · 7 games
29%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Lym- · 7 games
29%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
364 picks · 175 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
332 picks · 121 bans
48%
Lina
Lina
271 picks · 494 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
255 picks · 425 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
252 picks · 341 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
249 picks · 329 bans
51%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
246 picks · 515 bans
56%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
234 picks · 484 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 28%
Hero pool strength61% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total87% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:26
BOOM Esports 75%Army Geniuses 25%
The model gave 75% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 40:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaPalos
49% · 102 games54% · 100 games
Templar AssassinMamangDaya
Templar Assassin
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterYopaj
48% · 101 game56% · 92 games
Tinydb-
Tiny
Night Stalker
Night StalkerOhaiyo
40% · 42 games49% · 215 games
MarswoMy
Mars
Invoker
InvokerTims
56% · 106 games54% · 51 game
WindrangerLym-
Windranger
Monkey King
Monkey KingSkem
41% · 107 games
Game 2prediction correct32:11
BOOM Esports 74%Army Geniuses 26%
The model gave 74% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 21:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerPalos
54% · 62 games48% · 121 game
LinaMamangDaya
Lina
Tiny
TinyYopaj
53% · 92 games53% · 123 games
Gyrocopterdb-
Gyrocopter
Venomancer
VenomancerOhaiyo
47% · 18 games47% · 53 games
Night StalkerwoMy
Night Stalker
Lion
LionSkem
46% · 163 games59% · 114 games
Shadow DemonLym-
Shadow Demon
Monkey King
Monkey KingTims
40% · 76 games
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 87%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2