?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 1:2
V-Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Heaven · 24 games
54%
Mars
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 23 games
48%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Ainkrad · 20 games
60%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Lodine · 18 games
44%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Heaven · 17 games
41%
Lina
Linasignature
Heaven · 15 games
67%
Lion
Lion
Lodine · 15 games
40%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Heaven · 14 games
50%

V-Gaming

Lion
Lionsignature
ArrOw · 28 games
71%
Lina
Linasignature
hAze · 20 games
65%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
ArrOw · 18 games
72%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Malady · 18 games
83%
Puck
Puckoften banned
hAze · 17 games
53%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Malady · 15 games
53%
Axe
Axeoften banned
TA2000 · 13 games
46%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Malady · 13 games
77%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
368 picks · 178 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
336 picks · 121 bans
48%
Lina
Lina
270 picks · 497 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
253 picks · 426 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
252 picks · 344 bans
51%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
248 picks · 524 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
248 picks · 325 bans
51%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
235 picks · 489 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 73%
Hero pool strength57% V-Gaming
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total72% V-Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:35
Nemiga Gaming 35%V-Gaming 65%
The model gave 65% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 24:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracAinkrad
48% · 102 games51% · 79 games
LunaTA2000
Luna
Slark
SlarkKiritych
47% · 50 games49% · 107 games
BatriderhAze
Batrider
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderTheChosenOne
48% · 46 games40% · 6 games
Vengeful Spiritlaise
Vengeful Spirit
Clockwerk
ClockwerkHeaven
47% · 86 games54% · 74 games
Monkey KingArrOw
Monkey King
Disruptor
DisruptorLodine
47% · 59 games59% · 77 games
Treant ProtectorMalady
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction missed53:42
Nemiga Gaming 38%V-Gaming 62%
The model gave 62% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 56:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinKiritych
49% · 48 games53% · 84 games
MedusaTA2000
Medusa
Tiny
TinyAinkrad
46% · 112 games41% · 29 games
Brewmasterlaise
Brewmaster
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerTheChosenOne
36% · 20 games52% · 88 games
BatriderhAze
Batrider
Monkey King
Monkey KingHeaven
48% · 95 games60% · 77 games
Shadow DemonArrOw
Shadow Demon
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightLodine
48% · 74 games55% · 71 game
Elder TitanMalady
Elder Titan
Game 3prediction correct11:47
Nemiga Gaming 38%V-Gaming 62%
The model gave 62% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 35:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaKiritych
50% · 74 games57% · 45 games
Drow RangerTA2000
Drow Ranger
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetTheChosenOne
47% · 42 games45% · 100 games
BatriderhAze
Batrider
Puck
PuckAinkrad
47% · 131 game47% · 58 games
Brewmasterlaise
Brewmaster
Monkey King
Monkey KingHeaven
43% · 68 games56% · 91 game
Shadow DemonArrOw
Shadow Demon
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritLodine
53% · 30 games59% · 51 game
Treant ProtectorMalady
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteV-Gaming · 72%
Series resultV-Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3