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BTS Pro Series Season 8. ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 2:0
series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Army Geniusesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Lion
Lion
Hyde · 18 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Khezcute · 17 games
59%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Fbz · 13 games
54%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Fbz · 12 games
58%
Io
Iosignature
Skem · 10 games
80%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Mikoto · 10 games
60%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Mikoto · 10 games
90%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Hyde · 10 games
70%

Army Geniuses

Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Lym- · 15 games
53%
Mirana
Mirana
Lym- · 11 games
45%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
woMy · 10 games
50%
Axe
Axeoften banned
db- · 7 games
57%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
woMy · 7 games
29%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
MamangDaya · 7 games
29%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Lym- · 7 games
29%
Mars
Marsoften banned
woMy · 7 games
14%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
367 picks · 177 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
336 picks · 121 bans
48%
Lina
Lina
270 picks · 497 bans
53%
Luna
Luna
252 picks · 344 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
251 picks · 424 bans
49%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
248 picks · 523 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
246 picks · 323 bans
51%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
235 picks · 487 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 28%
Hero pool strength61% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total85% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:7
BOOM Esports 71%Army Geniuses 29%
The model gave 71% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 20:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenPalos
41% · 15 games45% · 41 game
KunkkawoMy
Kunkka
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritYopaj
47% · 87 games56% · 116 games
Ember SpiritMamangDaya
Ember Spirit
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFbz
56% · 67 games42% · 34 games
Rikidb-
Riki
Pangolier
PangolierTims
52% · 114 games52% · 125 games
MiranaLym-
Mirana
Weaver
WeaverSkem
44% · 33 games
Game 2prediction correct28:8
BOOM Esports 73%Army Geniuses 27%
The model gave 73% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 26:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterPalos
48% · 134 games53% · 65 games
Tinydb-
Tiny
Necrophos
NecrophosFbz
60% · 16 games47% · 160 games
Void SpiritMamangDaya
Void Spirit
Invoker
InvokerYopaj
53% · 144 games47% · 156 games
MarswoMy
Mars
Windranger
WindrangerTims
47% · 68 games55% · 145 games
PangolierLym-
Pangolier
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerSkem
48% · 164 games
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 85%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2