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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Virtus.proloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 25 games
52%
Muerta
Muerta
SumaiL · 23 games
48%
Mars
Marsoften banned
No!ob · 22 games
32%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
SumaiL · 20 games
55%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
GH · 18 games
22%
Dazzle
Dazzle
GH · 16 games
56%
Puck
Puckoften banned
SumaiL · 16 games
44%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
SumaiL · 16 games
56%

Virtus.pro

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Fly · 28 games
46%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Antares · 28 games
64%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Abed · 23 games
52%
Warlock
Warlock
Fly · 23 games
52%
Mars
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 22 games
50%
Puck
Pucksignature
Abed · 22 games
77%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Antares · 18 games
33%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Abed · 16 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
604 picks · 949 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
533 picks · 433 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
480 picks · 636 bans
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
466 picks · 616 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
439 picks · 959 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
403 picks · 662 bans
58%
Warlock
Warlock
399 picks · 244 bans
47%
Mars
Mars
396 picks · 537 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 43%
Hero pool strength52% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head5 – 3
Model total61% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:14
Nigma Galaxy 55%Virtus.pro 45%
The model gave 55% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 46:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
Juggernautrincyq
49% · 80 games45% · 23 games
Death ProphetSabeRLight-
Death Prophet
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNo!ob
49% · 456 games46% · 350 games
PuckAbed
Puck
Largo
LargoDavai
59% · 42 games52% · 201 game
MuertaTimado
Muerta
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinOmaR
52% · 75 games46% · 168 games
PhoenixFly
Phoenix
Jakiro
JakiroGH
52% · 499 games50% · 410 games
TuskHellscream
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct29:14
Nigma Galaxy 57%Virtus.pro 43%
The model gave 57% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 39:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinrincyq
50% · 267 games60% · 68 games
ClinkzTimado
Clinkz
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNo!ob
45% · 429 games43% · 241 game
Queen of PainAbed
Queen of Pain
Bristleback
BristlebackDavai
56% · 326 games46% · 261 game
MarsSabeRLight-
Mars
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightGH
60% · 141 game45% · 471 game
TinyHellscream
Tiny
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanOmaR
52% · 383 games49% · 505 games
JakiroFly
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 61%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2