Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Creepwavewin 2:0series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Qqwerty44loss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Creepwave
Marsoften banned
ATF · 8 games
Dark Willow
Chuvash · 6 games
Disruptorsignature
Kataomi · 6 games
Hoodwinksignature
Chuvash · 6 games
Svenoften banned
Crystallis · 6 games
Bane
Fishman · 5 games
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 5 games
Razoroften banned
ATF · 5 games
qwerty44
Invokeroften banned
USHUSHUSH · 6 games
Bane
Fezor · 3 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Kom4rt · 3 games
Clinkzoften banned
Kom4rt · 3 games
Omniknightoften banned
Fezor · 3 games
Pangolieroften banned
USHUSHUSH · 3 games
Phantom Lanceroften banned
Kom4rt · 3 games
Winter Wyvernoften banned
Fezor · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
369 picks · 177 bans
Hoodwink
340 picks · 122 bans
Lina
270 picks · 494 bans
Luna
251 picks · 343 bans
Nyx Assassin
250 picks · 527 bans
Mars
249 picks · 418 bans
Pangolier
244 picks · 319 bans
Terrorblade
236 picks · 489 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 29%
Hero pool strength58% Creepwave
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total83% Creepwave
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:16
Creepwave 69%qwerty44 31%
The model gave 69% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave in 30:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinCrystallis
InvokerUSHUSHUSH
Kunkkabzm
WeaverKom4rt
RazorATF
Vengeful SpiritFezor
Nyx AssassinChuvash
LichFishman
Game 2prediction correct30:7
Creepwave 70%qwerty44 30%
The model gave 70% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave in 27:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenCrystallis
GyrocopterKom4rt
Storm Spiritbzm
Spirit BreakerUSHUSHUSH
SlardarATF
SilencerFezor
ChenChuvash
BaneFishman
Model check result
Model favoriteCreepwave · 83%
Series resultCreepwave 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2