IESF World Championship 2021. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Беларусьloss 0:2series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Казахстанwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Беларусь
No games played over 6 months.
Казахстан
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
369 picks · 177 bans
Hoodwink
340 picks · 122 bans
Lina
270 picks · 491 bans
Luna
251 picks · 342 bans
Nyx Assassin
250 picks · 527 bans
Mars
249 picks · 417 bans
Pangolier
244 picks · 318 bans
Terrorblade
236 picks · 488 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Беларусь
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% Казахстан
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:6
Беларусь 29%Казахстан 71%
The model gave 71% on Казахстан — the game was taken by Казахстан in 16:37.
Game 2prediction correct20:36
Беларусь 29%Казахстан 71%
The model gave 71% on Казахстан — the game was taken by Казахстан in 34:29.
Model check result
Model favoriteКазахстан · 71%
Series resultКазахстан 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2