OB.Moon Asian Arena · BO2
result vs predictionseries probability
89%11%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BOOM Esports
Lion
Hyde · 18 games
Phoenix
Khezcute · 17 games
Marsoften banned
Fbz · 13 games
Iosignature
Skem · 10 games
Pangolieroften banned
Fbz · 10 games
Tusksignature
Hyde · 10 games
Miranasignature
Hyde · 9 games
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 9 games
iG Vitality
Clinkzoften banned
ukiyo · 3 games
Morphlingoften banned
ukiyo · 3 games
Windranger
ButterflyEffect · 3 games
Linaoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 2 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
ukiyo · 2 games
Queen of Painoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 2 games
Slarkoften banned
ukiyo · 2 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
372 picks · 178 bans
Hoodwink
340 picks · 122 bans
Lina
271 picks · 484 bans
Luna
252 picks · 342 bans
Nyx Assassin
250 picks · 529 bans
Mars
249 picks · 418 bans
Pangolier
242 picks · 314 bans
Terrorblade
235 picks · 487 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 18%
Hero pool strength58% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total89% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:20
BOOM Esports 75%iG Vitality 25%
The model gave 75% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 29:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinyPalos
Void SpiritButterflyEffect
Death ProphetFbz
Monkey Kingukiyo
InvokerYopaj
EnchantressSkem
PangolierTims
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 89%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1