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BTS Pro Series Season 8. ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxy SEAwin 2:0
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Motivate.Trust Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy SEA

Lion
Lionsignature
Jhocam · 22 games
73%
Puck
Puckoften banned
AlaCrity · 17 games
59%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Meracle · 14 games
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
Poloson · 12 games
67%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Jhocam · 11 games
64%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Poloson · 10 games
70%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Meracle · 9 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
AlaCrity · 9 games
56%

Motivate.Trust Gaming

Lion
Lionsignature
Q · 19 games
84%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Q · 15 games
67%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Fearless · 12 games
92%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Fearless · 10 games
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
LionaX · 9 games
67%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Q · 9 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
LionaX · 9 games
67%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
LionaX · 8 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
372 picks · 176 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
340 picks · 122 bans
48%
Lina
Lina
271 picks · 484 bans
53%
Luna
Luna
252 picks · 342 bans
51%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
250 picks · 528 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
249 picks · 417 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
242 picks · 313 bans
51%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
233 picks · 487 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 42%
Hero pool strength54% Motivate.Trust Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 4
Model total57% Nigma Galaxy SEA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:7
Nigma Galaxy SEA 51%Motivate.Trust Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy SEA in 28:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeinYourdreaM
53% · 84 games57% · 86 games
MedusaJaCkky
Medusa
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritAlaCrity
47% · 77 games47% · 94 games
Storm SpiritFearless
Storm Spirit
Brewmaster
BrewmasterMeracle
36% · 56 games57% · 45 games
DisruptorQ
Disruptor
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageJhocam
33% · 7 games54% · 78 games
Shadow Demonboombell
Shadow Demon
Snapfire
SnapfirePoloson
51% · 79 games
Game 2prediction correct27:26
Nigma Galaxy SEA 53%Motivate.Trust Gaming 47%
The model gave 53% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy SEA in 39:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeinYourdreaM
53% · 81 game48% · 85 games
GyrocopterJaCkky
Gyrocopter
Void Spirit
Void SpiritAlaCrity
47% · 147 games54% · 138 games
Ember SpiritFearless
Ember Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritMeracle
63% · 11 games50% · 6 games
SilencerQ
Silencer
Mirana
MiranaJhocam
45% · 99 games53% · 126 games
Abaddonboombell
Abaddon
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiPoloson
40% · 17 games
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy SEA · 57%
Series resultNigma Galaxy SEA 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2