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BTS Pro Series Season 8. ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxy SEAwin 2:0
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Polaris Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy SEA

Lion
Lionsignature
Jhocam · 21 game
71%
Puck
Puckoften banned
AlaCrity · 17 games
59%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Meracle · 13 games
46%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
Poloson · 12 games
67%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Jhocam · 11 games
64%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Poloson · 10 games
70%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Meracle · 9 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
AlaCrity · 9 games
56%

Polaris Esports

Lion
Lion
cml · 4 games
75%
Bane
Bane
cml · 3 games
67%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Natsumi · 3 games
33%
Mirana
Mirana
Boomy · 3 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mac · 2 games
100%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Mac · 2 games
100%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Mac · 2 games
0%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Natsumi · 2 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
373 picks · 175 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
344 picks · 122 bans
48%
Lina
Lina
269 picks · 480 bans
52%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
258 picks · 527 bans
57%
Luna
Luna
253 picks · 346 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
248 picks · 414 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
241 picks · 310 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
233 picks · 325 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 40%
Hero pool strength52% Nigma Galaxy SEA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Nigma Galaxy SEA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:6
Nigma Galaxy SEA 61%Polaris Esports 39%
The model gave 61% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy SEA in 32:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassininYourdreaM
59% · 144 games46% · 127 games
LunaNatsumi
Luna
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMeracle
52% · 202 games44% · 58 games
DoomForce
Doom
Tiny
TinyAlaCrity
54% · 136 games46% · 163 games
Void SpiritMac
Void Spirit
Weaver
WeaverJhocam
41% · 56 games48% · 236 games
LionBoomy
Lion
Tidehunter
TidehunterPoloson
51% · 179 games52% · 133 games
Abaddoncml
Abaddon
Game 2prediction correct33:21
Nigma Galaxy SEA 61%Polaris Esports 39%
The model gave 61% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy SEA in 42:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerinYourdreaM
39% · 44 games54% · 48 games
Phantom LancerNatsumi
Phantom Lancer
Kunkka
KunkkaAlaCrity
42% · 57 games55% · 132 games
TinyMac
Tiny
Undying
UndyingMeracle
48% · 37 games54% · 130 games
TidehunterBoomy
Tidehunter
Snapfire
SnapfirePoloson
45% · 91 game62% · 92 games
RazorForce
Razor
Lion
LionJhocam
47% · 184 games37% · 11 games
Chencml
Chen
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy SEA · 72%
Series resultNigma Galaxy SEA 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2