BTS Pro Series Season 8. ЮВА · BO2
result vs predictionseries probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nigma Galaxy SEA
Lionsignature
Jhocam · 21 game
Puckoften banned
AlaCrity · 17 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Meracle · 13 games
Ancient Apparitionsignature
Poloson · 12 games
Grimstrokesignature
Jhocam · 11 games
Enchantresssignature
Poloson · 10 games
Dark Seersignature
Meracle · 9 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
AlaCrity · 9 games
Polaris Esports
Lion
cml · 4 games
Bane
cml · 3 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Natsumi · 3 games
Mirana
Boomy · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mac · 2 games
Invokeroften banned
Mac · 2 games
Leshracoften banned
Mac · 2 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Natsumi · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
373 picks · 175 bans
Hoodwink
344 picks · 122 bans
Lina
269 picks · 480 bans
Nyx Assassin
258 picks · 527 bans
Luna
253 picks · 346 bans
Mars
248 picks · 414 bans
Pangolier
241 picks · 310 bans
Dragon Knight
233 picks · 325 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 40%
Hero pool strength52% Nigma Galaxy SEA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Nigma Galaxy SEA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:6
Nigma Galaxy SEA 61%Polaris Esports 39%
The model gave 61% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy SEA in 32:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassininYourdreaM
LunaNatsumi
Dragon KnightMeracle
DoomForce
TinyAlaCrity
Void SpiritMac
WeaverJhocam
LionBoomy
TidehunterPoloson
Abaddoncml
Game 2prediction correct33:21
Nigma Galaxy SEA 61%Polaris Esports 39%
The model gave 61% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy SEA in 42:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealerinYourdreaM
Phantom LancerNatsumi
KunkkaAlaCrity
TinyMac
UndyingMeracle
TidehunterBoomy
SnapfirePoloson
RazorForce
LionJhocam
Chencml
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy SEA · 72%
Series resultNigma Galaxy SEA 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2