DreamLeague Division 2 Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:0series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Inner Circleloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
1w Team
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 33 games
Hoodwink
swedenstrong · 32 games
Warlock
Rein · 32 games
Puckoften banned
Squad1x · 29 games
Tusk
swedenstrong · 27 games
Queen of Painsignature
Squad1x · 26 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Munkushi~ · 25 games
Leshracsignature
Squad1x · 24 games
Inner Circle
Warlock
Se · 24 games
Tusk
Daze · 23 games
Hoodwink
Fernans · 22 games
Marsoften banned
Norma · 22 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Norma · 18 games
Jakirooften banned
Se · 17 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
423 · 16 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
niche · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
609 picks · 949 bans
Tusk
534 picks · 435 bans
Centaur Warrunner
484 picks · 636 bans
Dragon Knight
468 picks · 625 bans
Shadow Demon
437 picks · 963 bans
Ember Spirit
402 picks · 662 bans
Warlock
399 picks · 242 bans
Mars
394 picks · 539 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 44%
Hero pool strength58% 1w Team
Head-to-head5 – 0
Model total74% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:17
1w Team 62%Inner Circle 38%
The model gave 62% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 34:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealerssnovv1
Morphling423
LeshracSquad1x
Ember Spiritniche
Bristlebackмистер мораль
Largolaise
Tuskswedenstrong
TinyJing
JakiroRein
Shadow ShamanSe
Game 2prediction correct36:16
1w Team 65%Inner Circle 35%
The model gave 65% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 33:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealerssnovv1
Clinkz423
Timbersawмистер мораль
Leshracniche
ViperSquad1x
Underlordlaise
DisruptorRein
ChenSe
Tuskswedenstrong
TinyJing
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 74%
Series result1w Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2