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BTS Pro Series Season 8. ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
Motivate.Trust Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Dream Makerloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Motivate.Trust Gaming

Lion
Lionsignature
Q · 19 games
84%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Q · 15 games
67%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Fearless · 12 games
92%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Fearless · 10 games
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
LionaX · 9 games
67%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Q · 9 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
LionaX · 9 games
67%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
LionaX · 8 games
38%

Dream Maker

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nevermine · 4 games
50%
Lion
Lion
czy · 4 games
50%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Nevermine · 4 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Nevermine · 4 games
0%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
TrazaM · 3 games
33%
Mirana
Mirana
czy · 3 games
33%
Rubick
Rubick
czy · 3 games
67%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
czy · 3 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
372 picks · 175 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
344 picks · 122 bans
48%
Lina
Lina
268 picks · 480 bans
53%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
258 picks · 527 bans
57%
Luna
Luna
252 picks · 346 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
247 picks · 414 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
241 picks · 307 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
233 picks · 325 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 33%
Hero pool strength62% Motivate.Trust Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% Motivate.Trust Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:6
Motivate.Trust Gaming 69%Dream Maker 31%
The model gave 69% on Motivate.Trust Gaming — the game was taken by Motivate.Trust Gaming in 23:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterJaCkky
45% · 96 games49% · 64 games
Sand KingNevermine
Sand King
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritFearless
50% · 112 games52% · 168 games
Lionczy
Lion
Monkey King
Monkey KingQ
54% · 101 game43% · 171 game
MarsTrazaM
Mars
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonboombell
59% · 94 games
Model check result
Model favoriteMotivate.Trust Gaming · 79%
Series resultMotivate.Trust Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1