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BTS Pro Series Season 8. ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
Team SMGwin 2:0
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BOOM Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team SMG

Lion
Lion
Roddgeee · 18 games
56%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Roddgeee · 15 games
67%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
AhFu · 14 games
50%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
kpii · 13 games
77%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
AhFu · 13 games
69%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
Moon · 13 games
92%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Ohaiyo · 12 games
58%
Tusk
Tusksignature
AhFu · 10 games
60%

BOOM Esports

Lion
Lion
Hyde · 18 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Khezcute · 17 games
59%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Fbz · 12 games
58%
Io
Iosignature
Dreamocel · 10 games
80%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Hyde · 10 games
70%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Fbz · 9 games
56%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Mikoto · 9 games
56%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Hyde · 8 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
372 picks · 175 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
344 picks · 122 bans
48%
Lina
Lina
267 picks · 477 bans
53%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
258 picks · 526 bans
57%
Luna
Luna
252 picks · 345 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
246 picks · 414 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
239 picks · 307 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
233 picks · 325 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 58%
Hero pool strength52% Team SMG
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total56% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:37
Team SMG 48%BOOM Esports 52%
The model gave 52% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Team SMG in 44:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Death Prophet
Death ProphetMoon
47% · 149 games52% · 137 games
LinaYopaj
Lina
Tiny
TinyMidOne
54% · 102 games45% · 67 games
KunkkaPalos
Kunkka
Beastmaster
Beastmasterkpii
59% · 101 game50% · 156 games
TidehunterFbz
Tidehunter
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeAhFu
40% · 173 games45% · 185 games
PangolierTims
Pangolier
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritRoddgeee
58% · 39 games60% · 19 games
BaneSkem
Bane
Game 2prediction missed27:26
Team SMG 47%BOOM Esports 53%
The model gave 53% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Team SMG in 32:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerMidOne
48% · 92 games48% · 147 games
PuckYopaj
Puck
Sniper
SniperMoon
little data47% · 105 games
BloodseekerPalos
Bloodseeker
Lycan
Lycankpii
53% · 92 games41% · 172 games
MarsFbz
Mars
Pangolier
PangolierRoddgeee
52% · 260 games43% · 83 games
RubickTims
Rubick
Earthshaker
EarthshakerAhFu
66% · 107 games51% · 44 games
GyrocopterSkem
Gyrocopter
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 56%
Series resultTeam SMG 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2