BTS Pro Series Season 8. ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
Polaris Esportswin 2:0series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Dream Makerloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Polaris Esports
Lion
cml · 4 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Natsumi · 3 games
Bane
cml · 2 games
Invokeroften banned
Mac · 2 games
Leshracoften banned
Mac · 2 games
Mirana
Boomy · 2 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Natsumi · 2 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Natsumi · 2 games
Dream Maker
Sand Kingoften banned
Nevermine · 4 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Nevermine · 3 games
Lion
czy · 3 games
Mirana
czy · 3 games
Rubick
czy · 3 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Nevermine · 3 games
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
czy · 3 games
Abaddonoften banned
TrazaM · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
374 picks · 175 bans
Hoodwink
345 picks · 123 bans
Lina
268 picks · 476 bans
Nyx Assassin
259 picks · 524 bans
Luna
252 picks · 349 bans
Mars
246 picks · 417 bans
Pangolier
239 picks · 306 bans
Dragon Knight
235 picks · 328 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 36%
Hero pool strength55% Polaris Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Polaris Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:40
Polaris Esports 51%Dream Maker 49%
The model gave 51% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 43:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom LancerNatsumi
BeastmasterNevermine
Void SpiritMac
DawnbreakerTrazaM
Spirit BreakerForce
Windrangerczy
Queen of PainBoomy
Silencercml
Game 2prediction correct29:16
Polaris Esports 55%Dream Maker 45%
The model gave 55% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 27:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaNatsumi
DawnbreakerNevermine
AxeForce
TidehunterTrazaM
Ember SpiritMac
Lionczy
MiranaBoomy
Banecml
Model check result
Model favoritePolaris Esports · 59%
Series resultPolaris Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2