BTS Pro Series Season 8. ЮВА · BO2
result vs predictionseries probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nigma Galaxy SEA
Lionsignature
Jhocam · 20 games
Puckoften banned
AlaCrity · 17 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Meracle · 13 games
Ancient Apparitionsignature
Poloson · 12 games
Grimstrokesignature
Jhocam · 11 games
Enchantresssignature
Poloson · 10 games
Leshracsignature
inYourdreaM · 9 games
Dark Seersignature
Meracle · 8 games
Army Geniuses
Earth Spirit
Lym- · 15 games
Timbersawoften banned
woMy · 12 games
Mirana
Lym- · 11 games
Broodmotheroften banned
woMy · 8 games
Marsoften banned
woMy · 8 games
Axeoften banned
db- · 7 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
MamangDaya · 7 games
Hoodwink
Lym- · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
376 picks · 172 bans
Hoodwink
346 picks · 125 bans
Lina
267 picks · 473 bans
Nyx Assassin
259 picks · 524 bans
Luna
252 picks · 350 bans
Mars
246 picks · 418 bans
Pangolier
240 picks · 301 bans
Dragon Knight
236 picks · 328 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 27%
Hero pool strength60% Nigma Galaxy SEA
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total87% Nigma Galaxy SEA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct44:42
Nigma Galaxy SEA 74%Army Geniuses 26%
The model gave 74% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy SEA in 53:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom LancerinYourdreaM
Naga Sirendb-
BatriderAlaCrity
TinyMamangDaya
Dark SeerMeracle
VenomancerwoMy
LichPoloson
Earth SpiritLym-
Nyx AssassinJhocam
Game 2prediction correct31:19
Nigma Galaxy SEA 75%Army Geniuses 25%
The model gave 75% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy SEA in 33:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlinginYourdreaM
Anti-Magedb-
Ember SpiritAlaCrity
LycanwoMy
AbaddonMeracle
TidehunterMamangDaya
Vengeful SpiritPoloson
PhoenixLym-
LionJhocam
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy SEA · 87%
Series resultNigma Galaxy SEA 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2