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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
HellRaiserswin 2:1
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:1
B8 Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HellRaisers

No games played over 6 months.

B8 Esports

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
[T]SA · 18 games
61%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Dendi · 14 games
71%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Yuma · 11 games
73%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
[T]SA · 11 games
45%
Lina
Linaoften banned
[T]SA · 9 games
56%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Watson · 9 games
67%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Davai · 9 games
44%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Limitless · 8 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
376 picks · 172 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
346 picks · 124 bans
47%
Lina
Lina
266 picks · 472 bans
52%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
259 picks · 523 bans
57%
Luna
Luna
252 picks · 348 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
244 picks · 418 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
238 picks · 299 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
236 picks · 328 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 52%
Hero pool strength55% B8 Esports
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total56% HellRaisers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:35
HellRaisers 56%B8 Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 41:21.
Game 2prediction missed46:50
HellRaisers 56%B8 Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 52:40.
Game 3prediction missed49:15
HellRaisers 56%B8 Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 32:51.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellRaisers · 56%
Series resultHellRaisers 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3